What-if shocks on CHI, CMHI & the National Consumer Confidence Index
Move the sliders to simulate macro shocks. The deterministic engine applies first-order sensitivities calibrated on the 2020–2025 observatory backfill (COVID, 2022 cedi crisis, IMF programme) and recomputes each component — including the Consumer Harm Index (CHI), which now feeds the NCCI composite so the impact of inflation and cedi stress reflects harm outcomes too.
Shock controls · baseline 2026 Q2
Inflation shock
Additional headline CPI percentage points vs current vintage.
+0.0 pp CPI
-5025
Cedi stress
Additional cedi depreciation against USD vs current vintage.
+0.0 % depreciation
-10040
Sector risk shock
Stress applied to systemic risk drivers (banking, telecom, energy).
+0.0 % stress
-10040
Presets
NCCI · Consumer Confidence
51.2+0.00
Baseline 51.2
CHI · Consumer Harm
44.3+0.00
Baseline 44.3
CMHI · Market Health
68.7+0.00
Baseline 68.7
CVI · Vulnerability
60.8+0.00
Baseline 60.8
MRI · Market Risk
56.5+0.00
Baseline 56.5
CBTI · Trust
55.9+0.00
Baseline 55.9
Baseline vs projected · index points (0–100)
Net change vs baseline (positive = points moved up)
Green = movement that helps consumers (e.g. lower vulnerability/risk, higher health/trust/resilience). Red = movement that hurts. Sensitivities are deterministic first-order coefficients — see methodology.