GCIN
Consumer Intelligence
Module 12 · Market Risk Forecast

Market Risk Index

Current MRI
58.0
Predicted (90d)
63.3
Band 59–67
Escalation probability
58%
Risk climbs to 'high' within 90d
Confidence
68%
MRI trajectory
Data vintage: Source window: 2025 Q1 – 2026 Q2 · forecast horizon to 2026 Q4
Current posture58
58
Escalation probability (90d)
Acceleration indicators
  • Digital lending complaints rising in youth segment
  • Mobile money fraud growth accelerating in Greater Accra
  • Telecom service quality complaints stabilizing
  • Insurance dispute clearance times improving slowly
Regional × sector risk heatmap
Data vintage: Source window: 2025 Q1 – 2026 Q2
MoMoE-CommTelecomBankingInsurance
Greater Accra
52
65
77
88
46
Ashanti
53
66
78
89
47
Western
60
73
85
41
54
Eastern
67
80
37
48
61
Northern
75
88
45
56
69
Volta
79
37
49
60
73